Bank Indonesia (BI) estimates that Indonesia's economic growth could reach 5.5 to 6 percent in 2010 and increased to 6 to 6.5 percent in 2011. Thus, Indonesia's economic prospects will be better than expected.
"In addition to the still strong domestic demand, the improvement mainly comes from the external side in line with the global economic recovery, as seen from exports which recorded positive growth since the fourth quarter of 2009," said BI Deputy Governor Hartadi A Sarwono BI in a press release here on Thursday (11 / 3).
The global economic recovery seen from various economic indicators in developed nations like the United States and Japan as well as in Asia (China and India).In the United States, reflected the recovery in private consumption which continued to strengthen and accompanied by increased response on the production side.
Meanwhile in Japan, marked by positive growth in the last quarter of 2009. In China and India, indications of economic recovery is more clearly visible as reflected in high economic growth rate. Various improvements are a positive impact on the countries that become trading partners, including Indonesia.
Meanwhile, global economic recovery had a positive impact on the development of the external sector of the Indonesian economy. Indonesia's non-oil export performance in the fourth quarter of 2009 recorded growth that is high enough to reach around 17 percent and is still continuing in January 2010.
Increasing exports not only occur in mining and agricultural commodities, but also the manufacturing of commodity exports began to rise. These developments support the growth in industry and trade sector are higher than expected. Meanwhile, the import activity increased slightly in line with increased exports, though at levels still low.
The current account in the first quarter of 2010 is estimated to record a larger surplus than expected. Meanwhile, the confidence of foreign investors to Indonesia's economic prospects are getting better reflected in the capital and financial account surplus is still quite high.
With these developments, to the overall balance of payments surplus in 2010 is estimated to be better than expected. "Just one more notch for Indonesia to achieve investment grade, so would increasingly give greater confidence to foreign investors to increase investment in Indonesia," said Hartadi respond repairs Indonesia by Fitch's sovereign rating to BB + from BB original some time ago.
In addition to the improved export performance, the activities of private consumption also showed improvement. This is confirmed by the increase in consumption of various indicators such as imports of consumer goods, sales of cars and motorcycles, as well as retail sales.
Looking ahead, growth in household consumption is expected to continue increasing in line with higher revenue due to income effect of the improvement in exports and subdued consumer confidence.
In regard to prices, inflationary pressures are believed to be significant not least in the first half of 2010. The development of inflation in the first two months of 2010 is still maintained at a low level.
Relatively controlled inflation is also reflected in the development of core inflation which fell from 4.43 per cent (yoy) in January 2010 to 3.88 percent (yoy) in February 2010.
The increase in CPI inflation in early 2010 proved to be temporary, primarily because of rising rice prices, and estimated the price hikes do not occur again in the coming months along with the arrival of harvest season in many regions.
Possible increase in basic electricity tariff (TDL) is not expected to cause large effects on inflation throughout applied mainly to the large customer group. Overall, inflation is believed to remain awake on the specified target of 5 percent + 1 percent in 2010 and 2011.
"Although domestic economic activity increased, I'm sure not going to exceed the level of potential output, so that will not generate excessive inflationary pressure from the fundamental side," said Hartadi.
"In addition to the still strong domestic demand, the improvement mainly comes from the external side in line with the global economic recovery, as seen from exports which recorded positive growth since the fourth quarter of 2009," said BI Deputy Governor Hartadi A Sarwono BI in a press release here on Thursday (11 / 3).
The global economic recovery seen from various economic indicators in developed nations like the United States and Japan as well as in Asia (China and India).In the United States, reflected the recovery in private consumption which continued to strengthen and accompanied by increased response on the production side.
Meanwhile in Japan, marked by positive growth in the last quarter of 2009. In China and India, indications of economic recovery is more clearly visible as reflected in high economic growth rate. Various improvements are a positive impact on the countries that become trading partners, including Indonesia.
Meanwhile, global economic recovery had a positive impact on the development of the external sector of the Indonesian economy. Indonesia's non-oil export performance in the fourth quarter of 2009 recorded growth that is high enough to reach around 17 percent and is still continuing in January 2010.
Increasing exports not only occur in mining and agricultural commodities, but also the manufacturing of commodity exports began to rise. These developments support the growth in industry and trade sector are higher than expected. Meanwhile, the import activity increased slightly in line with increased exports, though at levels still low.
The current account in the first quarter of 2010 is estimated to record a larger surplus than expected. Meanwhile, the confidence of foreign investors to Indonesia's economic prospects are getting better reflected in the capital and financial account surplus is still quite high.
With these developments, to the overall balance of payments surplus in 2010 is estimated to be better than expected. "Just one more notch for Indonesia to achieve investment grade, so would increasingly give greater confidence to foreign investors to increase investment in Indonesia," said Hartadi respond repairs Indonesia by Fitch's sovereign rating to BB + from BB original some time ago.
In addition to the improved export performance, the activities of private consumption also showed improvement. This is confirmed by the increase in consumption of various indicators such as imports of consumer goods, sales of cars and motorcycles, as well as retail sales.
Looking ahead, growth in household consumption is expected to continue increasing in line with higher revenue due to income effect of the improvement in exports and subdued consumer confidence.
In regard to prices, inflationary pressures are believed to be significant not least in the first half of 2010. The development of inflation in the first two months of 2010 is still maintained at a low level.
Relatively controlled inflation is also reflected in the development of core inflation which fell from 4.43 per cent (yoy) in January 2010 to 3.88 percent (yoy) in February 2010.
The increase in CPI inflation in early 2010 proved to be temporary, primarily because of rising rice prices, and estimated the price hikes do not occur again in the coming months along with the arrival of harvest season in many regions.
Possible increase in basic electricity tariff (TDL) is not expected to cause large effects on inflation throughout applied mainly to the large customer group. Overall, inflation is believed to remain awake on the specified target of 5 percent + 1 percent in 2010 and 2011.
"Although domestic economic activity increased, I'm sure not going to exceed the level of potential output, so that will not generate excessive inflationary pressure from the fundamental side," said Hartadi.
thanks for information... hope Indonesian economy is getting better hopefully
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